Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.400619 0.462669 0.530254 0.609214 0.698811 0.797193 0.913276
2025-09-07 0.310885 0.399441 0.505392 0.640905 0.808976 1.009884 1.267480
2025-09-14 0.241101 0.335851 0.457497 0.623873 0.844064 1.123862 1.504437
2025-09-21 0.194114 0.289429 0.419228 0.606871 0.868741 1.218358 1.716937
2025-09-28 0.160720 0.254546 0.389131 0.593345 0.891730 1.307344 1.924391
2025-10-05 0.142402 0.237842 0.381113 0.607842 0.952485 1.450239 2.214937
2025-10-12 0.131305 0.230043 0.384422 0.638027 1.037207 1.632317 2.574226
2025-10-19 0.118898 0.218068 0.379261 0.653596 1.099820 1.785117 2.900263
2025-10-26 0.106659 0.204451 0.369435 0.659863 1.147189 1.916852 3.202274
2025-11-02 0.094912 0.189914 0.356072 0.658218 1.180518 2.027669 3.477774
2025-11-09 0.083667 0.174632 0.339443 0.648763 1.199086 2.114860 3.719877
2025-11-16 0.074099 0.161124 0.324263 0.639875 1.217049 2.201185 3.964976
2025-11-23 0.063929 0.145182 0.303079 0.618443 1.211963 2.249911 4.153660
2025-11-30 0.061296 0.144313 0.310509 0.651258 1.307801 2.479871 4.670326
2025-12-07 0.053576 0.131506 0.292946 0.634025 1.309027 2.542553 4.897256
2025-12-14 0.046889 0.119921 0.276384 0.616774 1.308156 2.600506 5.118409
2025-12-21 0.041379 0.110154 0.262379 0.603046 1.312483 2.667562 5.359558
2025-12-28 0.038801 0.106942 0.262068 0.617759 1.374472 2.846709 5.820178
2026-01-04 0.037621 0.106983 0.268925 0.648394 1.471181 3.098326 6.433040
2026-01-11 0.035456 0.104210 0.269052 0.664195 1.538120 3.295995 6.953639
2026-01-18 0.032868 0.099939 0.265176 0.670554 1.585358 3.457370 7.412558
2026-01-25 0.030056 0.094619 0.258147 0.668885 1.614848 3.584445 7.810279
2026-02-01 0.027097 0.088411 0.248192 0.659289 1.625912 3.674202 8.137760